Follow-ups - FiMED

The repercussions of the US midterm congressional elections extend beyond the bounds of partisan infighting in Washington to reach the future of US-Israeli relations, amid declining support for Israel within both the Democratic and Republican parties, rising prospects of restrictions on arms deals, and fears that President Donald Trump's weakened domestic standing may push him to intensify his diplomatic moves in the Middle East in search of political achievements.

In an opinion article published by the "Yedioth Ahronoth", website, writer Gadi Ezra argues that the outcome of the current elections could directly affect the security umbrella the United States provides to Israel and the commercial and military relations between the two countries, even though Israel is not at the top of the issues before American voters.

Prospect of Congress falling under Democratic control

Ezra notes that Trump is contesting the elections amid declining popularity, citing an NBC poll showing disapproval of his performance at 60%, with expectations that Democrats will win majorities in both chambers of Congress.

The writer warns that a shift of legislative control to the Democrats could weaken Israel's ability to push its military policies through Washington, especially with growing criticism within the Democratic Party of Israeli practices in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

In this context, he cites the vote by 40 of the 47 Democratic senators last April in favor of halting arms sales to Israel, compared with 27 members the previous year, considering that this shift reflects a broadening willingness within the party to take practical steps against arms deals, after previous proposals had failed because of the Republican majority.

He believes that a Democratic majority in the Senate could change the voting balance and increase the chances of passing decisions restricting arms sales, even with Trump holding the power to use the presidential veto.

Trump may turn to diplomacy to offset domestic losses

In the medium term, Ezra expects that the Republicans' loss of control of Congress would weaken Trump's ability to pass his domestic agenda during the last two years of his term, which may push him to focus more on foreign policy as a field for achieving accomplishments that could be tied to his political legacy.

The writer invokes the experiences of former US presidents, including George W. Bush and Barack Obama, as well as Trump himself, noting that the governing party's loss of control of Congress in those cases was accompanied by prominent diplomatic moves in the Middle East.

In this framework, he points to the files Trump is currently dealing with, foremost among them the negotiations with Iran, efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the future of the Gaza Strip amid the continued presence of Hamas.

In his assessment, the pressures the next Israeli government may face will not necessarily come from a Democratic Congress alone, but may also emanate from the Trump administration itself, if it seeks rapid results on the region's files, which could place the Israeli government before political choices that do not necessarily align with its priorities.

Declining support for Israel within both parties

In the long term, Ezra places the decline in support for Israel in the United States among the most prominent strategic challenges facing relations between the two countries, noting that the shifts are no longer confined to the Democratic Party but also extend to segments of the Republican base.

It draws on a study by the Pew Research Center published in July 2026, showing that the share of Democrats who view the Israeli people positively fell from 57% to 43% over seven years, while the share of those sympathetic to the Palestinians rose from 58% to 67%, reaching 72% among young Democrats..

The article warns that the continuation of this trend could be reflected in the future of American support for Israel, especially since 2028 will see a new presidential election, coinciding with the expiry of the current U.S. military aid agreement to Israel, according to what the writer stated..

Ezra concludes that the Israeli challenge is not limited to regaining support within the Democratic Party, but also includes halting the decline in support within the Republican Party, and rebuilding a bipartisan support base, after this consensus had for decades remained one of the pillars of the strategic relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv..

This Israeli reading reflects fears that shifts in American public opinion, and partisan divisions over Israel, could turn into political and legislative pressures with greater influence on armament, aid and diplomatic relations decisions in the coming years.