Follow-ups - FiMED

A strategic document prepared by researchers taking part in the Churchill program at the Israeli Argaman Institute has revealed a political and security vision calling for a rewrite of Israel's security doctrine, by expanding offensive military capabilities, preparing for a multi-front war, and abandoning the bet on establishing an independent Palestinian state, culminating in proposing the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and opening tracks to encourage emigration from the West Bank.

The document is titled "Model Project: A New Strategic Agenda for Israel", runs to 307 pages in its English version published on the Argaman Institute's official website, and was prepared within the Zion Fellows program for the 2024-2025 academic year, with the original Hebrew version published in September 2025.

An offensive doctrine instead of relying on deterrence alone

The document calls for a review of what it describes as the failures of the Israeli security doctrine entrenched since the 1990s, arguing that reliance on defense, fortifications and technological superiority, alongside a reduction of ground forces, has not provided the required security.

It recommends a return to the principles of "initiative and decisiveness", strengthening preemptive strikes, moving battles onto enemy territory, and expanding ground forces to allow simultaneous operations on multiple fronts, including carrying out deep maneuvers at distances far from Israel's borders.

It also calls for the creation of long-term buffer zones, boosting independence in weapons production, and reducing dependence on American military aid, while preserving the strategic partnership with Washington.

The document further proposes revisiting the ethics of the Israeli army, so that national identity and military victory become a central part of the moral framework governing the use of force.

The West Bank: One state, and it is Israel

The chapter on the West Bank is among the most sensitive parts of the document; it sets out a long-range strategic goal of establishing a single sovereign state, Israel, while granting Palestinians local rule, instead of establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

The document calls for applying Israeli sovereignty gradually, starting with areas such as the Jordan Valley and the Ma'ale Adumim area, then expanding toward the major settlement blocs and onward to the entire territory, according to political circumstances and available opportunities. It also proposes transferring responsibility for civilian infrastructure in the West Bank to Israel, reorganizing land administration, and expanding Israeli control over resources, services and civil institutions.

In the same context, the document describes the Palestinian Authority as a security and political threat, saying the difference between it and Hamas concerns methods of action, not goals. On that basis, it calls for dissolving the Palestinian Authority and moving to a system of decentralized local administrations, while dismantling the security structures Israel considers a threat to its security, including the Palestinian security services.

The document proposes opening tracks for what it describes as "voluntary" emigration, alongside a track for residency and then the gradual acquisition of Israeli citizenship according to conditions it sets.

Egypt and Jordan: Preparing for scenarios in which peace collapses

A separate chapter addresses relations with Egypt and Jordan, which are bound to Israel by peace treaties since 1979 and 1994 respectively.

The document calls for not settling for assuming the status quo will continue, and for preparing military and intelligence plans to deal with extreme scenarios, including the possibility of Islamist forces coming to power in one of the two countries or the collapse of central authority there.

It notes that any change in the status of the two countries could reshape Israel's security environment, and therefore calls for monitoring military and political developments, preparing plans relating to the control of strategic areas, protecting shared infrastructure, and preparing for the possibility of conventional threats on the borders..

The proposals also include the use of economic and diplomatic tools to influence the policies of Cairo and Amman, among them linking some American aid to the behavior of the two countries, and using cooperation in water, energy and trade as a means of pressure or an incentive..

With regard to the Gaza Strip, the document stipulates the necessity of preventing Egypt from participating in its administration in the future, whether alone or within a joint governance framework, and considers Israeli security control over the Strip necessary from its strategic perspective..

Encouraging emigration and changing the demographic reality

The document links its conception of a single state under Israeli sovereignty with addressing what it considers a demographic challenge. It therefore proposes opening channels for emigration, which it describes as voluntary, while offering compensation for property, alongside another path of residency and conditional Israeli citizenship..

This proposal acquires particular importance because it is not limited to security or administrative arrangements, but is connected to the future of the Palestinian presence in the West Bank and the prospects for its survival on its land and its political and national rights..

Rebuilding the army and preparing for a multi-front war

Alongside the political proposals relating to the Palestinians and the neighboring states, the document calls for expanding the ground forces, rebuilding brigades and military divisions, improving the readiness of reserve forces, and developing engineering, intelligence and technological capabilities..

It also addresses the threats associated with Iran and its allies, and calls for enhancing Israel's ability to operate in a multipolar regional and international environment, and diversifying its defense and technological relations with different countries..

These recommendations combine strengthening traditional military capabilities with expanding the tools of political, economic and intelligence influence, within a conception that seeks to give Israel a greater ability to take the initiative and shape the regional environment instead of merely dealing with threats after they emerge..

What does the document reveal?

The document reveals a strategic conception that goes beyond managing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to reshaping its political and geographical foundations, by rejecting the two-state model, proposing the termination of the Palestinian Authority, and expanding Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, in parallel with preparing for regional confrontation scenarios that include Egypt and Jordan..

The danger of this vision stands out in its combination of a project of regional expansion, changing the Palestinian political structure, and military preparation for scenarios that go beyond the existing situation. If these recommendations turn into official policies, they could increase tensions in the region and put peace treaties and regional stability before severe tests.

The Argaman Institute for Advanced Studies is an Israeli research and educational institution with a nationalist and conservative orientation, working to prepare cadres and formulate visions in foreign policy and national security, through programs aimed at influencing Israeli strategic debates..

Its importance stems from the connection of its programs to figures who have held security and government positions, among them David Zini, head of the Shin Bet, who graduated from the institute's Churchill program, along with former officials who participated in its programs as lecturers..

The institute works to transform theoretical ideas into policy papers and proposals directed at decision-making circles, and its document «A New Strategic Agenda for Israel» falls within this context, addressing the future of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, relations with Egypt and Jordan, and Israeli military doctrine.